Market Update: NFP Miss Signals Fed Caution – Key Impacts
US Nonfarm Payrolls added just 50K jobs in December 2025 (vs 70K forecast), confirming labor market slowdown and reinforcing Fed’s cautious stance on January rate cuts.[1][2]
Key Economic Data Highlights
| Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous (Rev) | Market Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US NFP | 50K | 70K | 56K | DXY↑, Stocks↑, Yields↑[1] |
| Canada Jobs | +8.2K | -2.5K | 53.6K | CAD strengthened[3] |
| Fed Jan Cut Odds | ~0% | – | – | Treasuries pressured[4] |
Trading Implications
Bullish:
- DXY & US Yields: Weak NFP supports USD strength, 10Y yields rising[2][5]
- US Equities: Futures advanced despite data miss (rotation to cyclicals)[6]
- CAD: Strong beat boosts Canadian dollar[3]
Bearish:
- JPY: Takaichi dissolution talk adds political risk, yen weakened[Yomiuri via user][7]
- Treasuries: Rate cut hopes fade, bonds under pressure[4]
Technical Trading Setup
USDJPY: Breakout above 157.00 → Target 158.50 (dissolution risk)
US10Y: 4.45% resistance → 4.55% upside
SPX Futures: Gap fill 6100 → 6150 momentumTotal NFP Miss Impact: Markets pricing 95.6% chance Fed holds rates January meeting – bullish USD, bearish bonds.[4]
Sources
[1] United States Non Farm Payrolls https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
[2] US job growth stuck at stall speed in December https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-slows-december-unemployment-rate-eases-44-2026-01-09/
[3] January 2026 Canada Talent Market Monthly https://www.kellyservices.ca/en-ca/market-insights/january-2026-canada-talent-market-monthly
[4] CME FedWatch Tool Predicts January Rate Decision https://www.binance.com/en-IN/square/post/01-11-2026-cme-fedwatch-tool-predicts-january-rate-decision-34958547493258
[5] US Jobs Report December: Payrolls Miss, Unemployment … https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/us-payrolls-rise-below-forecast-50-000-but-unemployment-lower
[6] Nonfarm Payrolls Come in Lower Than Expected https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2815128/nonfarm-payrolls-come-in-lower-than-expected
[7] In Japan, timing of possible Lower House dissolution to be political … https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/in-japan-timing-of-possible-lower-house-dissolution-to-be-political-focal-point-in-2026
[8] OpTransactionHistoryUX311-01-2026.pdf https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/attachments/122464380/9f547322-1842-4221-8408-eb0320edc2e9/OpTransactionHistoryUX311-01-2026.pdf
[9] Employment Situation News Release – 2025 M13 Results https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01092026.htm
[10] United States Nonfarm Payrolls https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227
[11] Five big changes to employment and hiring rules you need … https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/five-big-changes-employment-hiring-173418614.html
